Opinion: Withdrawal from integration associations will hit hard enterprises, banking system

“Any withdrawal from the integration associations that have been set up for the past 10-15 years (the Eurasian union is five years, but taking into the Customs Union it is much older) will definitely hit hard not only enterprises but also the country's banking system,” the expert believes.

According to him, banks, having stopped receiving financial flows in the form of payments on loans from enterprises, will start to collapse, which will lead to the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble “Fall in the solvency will reduce the assets of banks, and they, as a result, will become an easy prey for large financial institutions and groups. The purpose of such actions in economy and finances is to weaken the value of Belarusian assets for their subsequent purchase for pennies. Today our Belarusian assets are estimated at about Br150 billion. With devaluation and dire economic situation their cost could plummet to under Br30 billion,” Aleksei Avdonin explained.

The analyst also believes that the withdrawal from the integration associations will lead to the destruction of all enterprises that export a lion's share of their output to the Russian market as their goods and services are not in demand in the European and American markets. “In the post-pandemic period there is a strong competition for foreign markets, and new enterprises, including from Belarus, are strongly not welcome,” the expert said.